Activities - Developing
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH AT THE WORLDAGROFORESTRY CENTER
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE RURAL POOR are going to bear the brunt of climate change. Global conventions are not going to halt the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and governments need many years to address the underlying drivers of climate change. Local climates and terrestrial ecosystems will inevitably change. Yet, even as climate changes, food and fibre production, environmental services and rural livelihoods must improve, not just be maintained.
The world Agroforestry Centre is working with many partners on the climate change issue. Two primary goals shape the Centre's efforts: the first is to help provide options for farmers that increase the sustainability of their operations and buffer them against increasing climatic variability. The second goal is centred on mitigation of the problem itself, as called for in the Kyoto Protocol.
In the short term, the major threat for small holder farmers is increased variability in local climates, rather than long-term changes in average rainfall or temperatures. Research indicates that agroforestry systems, such as the improved fallow systems being implemented in parts of Zambia and Malawi, buffer against drought and help farmers to successfully produce maize, even in mow rainfall years. Research aimed at validating these findings at other sites is underway, and other such adaptation options are being developed and assessed.
In the longer term, however, much needs to be done to reach the greenhouse gas reduction targets agreed in the Kyoto Protocol. One key question is how much carbon can actually be sequestered in agricultural landscapes? Agroforestry has been singled out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report as having high carbon sequestration potential, second only to natural forests. By quantifying the real carbon sequestration potential of different systems, we can help guide decision makers to the types of agricultural practices that are most likely to improve the sustainability of tropical farming, and provide global environmental benefits.
Centre scientists are also contributing to regional and global analyses of the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid tropics and the feasibility of carbon-offset schemes through participation in the Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Programme.
The climate change issue is extraordinarily complex. There are a considerable number of inherent biophysical uncertainties. There is real potential for irreversible damage to ecosystems. Planning horizons must extend far into the future, in part because of long time lags between greenhouse gas emissions and their effects; and despite the global scope of the problem, there are wide regional variations in causes and effects, further complicating the political dimensions of the challenge. What is sorely needed is better information about climate change processes, the impacts of those changes on agriculture and forestry, and appropriate ways to facilitate adaptation.
Measuring Success: For CDM projects to be both effective and sustainable, poor farmers must be able to improve their livelihoods. P Sanchez