Impacts on the African Agricultural Sector
Today, it is widely agreed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions are causally linked to changes in climate pattern and that global climate change is already reality [1], [2]. Increasing surface temperatures have been recorded over the last century and associated regional im-pacts on various physical and biological systems have been documented [3]. The effects of climate change vary widely in scale, intensity and time of occurrence among different regions and may affect bio-physical and socioeconomic systems with varying severity depending on their individual vulnerability 3 .
Example of increased temperatures on two major cash crops in Africa
The agricultural sectors of most African countries are considered to be highly vulnerable as a result of their limited adaptive capacity, overdependence on rainfed systems and widespread pover-ty among the rural popula-tion 3, [4]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 3 identified a number of key aspects of climate change in the context of African agriculture:
Water resources will be-come increasingly scarce. A reduction of soil mois-ture, precipitation and runoff production will negatively affect the agricultural output in most regions.
Food security will be worsened by a decline in production and uncertain climate especially in sub-humid and semi-arid regions as well as in areas with frequent occurrence of prolonged droughts. Particularly vulnerable is the high proportion of rural population, which is dependent on locally grown crops or food harvested.
Desertification will be exacerbated by changes in rainfall and intensified land use. Areas particularly at risk include the Sahel and countries that consist entirely of drylands.
These effects might contribute considerably to socioeconomic and political instabilities in the region augmented by a growing bilateral and multilateral conflict potential arising from increasing populations competing for decreasing natural resources 3 .
[1] Poverty and Climate Change – Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation
[2] IUCN, SEI, iisd, SDC, inter cooperation (2003): Livelihoods and Climate Change, publication by the IISD
[3] IPCC (2001): Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK
[4] Odingo, Richard (2001): Adaptation Projects and Climate Change in Africa in impact – Newsletter of the Climate Network Africa, Special Edition, October 2001; Nairobi, Kenya